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Wines / Estimates for 2024: total sales up 2.4%, driven by international success of sparkling wines

The Mediobanca Research Area has published its report on the Italian wine industry. The survey covers 253 leading Italian limited wine companies with total sales of over €20m and aggregate revenues of €11.8bn, representing 88.4% of the national sector total

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Global wine production in 2023 has been estimated at 237 million hectolitres, a strong decrease on 2022 (down 9.6%). Global consumption has been estimated at 221 million hectolitres (down 2.6%). Changes in demand, produced by generational turnover, healthier lifestyles and climatechange, have driven a reduction in the consumption of red wine, which has declined from anaverage share of 51.3% in the 2000-04 period, to 48.3% in the 2017-21 period.

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By contrast, the consumption of white wines has reflected the opposite trend, rising from 40% to 42.2%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points, as has the consumption of rosé wines (up from 8.7% to 9.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points). Italy has followed the trends seen at world level, reporting a 23.2% decrease in production compared to 2022, and a 1.6% decrease in consumption, with 37.4 litres of wine consumed per annum). The balance of payments reflects a surplus in Italy: in 20 years the surplus has grown at an annual average rate of 5.5%, rising from €2.5bn in 2003 to 7.2% in 2023. Italy is the world’s leading exporter of wine in terms of quantity (21.4 million hectolitres in 2023) and ranks second in terms of value (€7.7bn, behind only France with €11.9bn).

infographic italian wines mediobanca
2023 and beyond for the Italian wine-making industry
The leading Italian wine makers see growth of 2.6% in total sales for 2024, and of 3% for exports. Optimism continues in the area of sparkling wine, where total revenues are expected to increase by 3.7%, exports especially (up 6.8%), whereas sales of non-sparkling wines are expected to increase by 2.3% (exports up 2.2%).
In 2023, the leading Italian wine markets reported very little change compared to the previous year (total sales down 0.2% vs 2022), with the domestic market (total sales down 0.7%) slightly underperforming the international market (total sales up 0.3%). Exports of sparkling wines in particular posted an impressive performance, up 2.5%. The Ebit margin reported a 1.4% increase vs 2022, while net profit accounted for 4.2% of total sales.

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Quantities of wine sold were down 4.5% in 2023 across all channels. Inflation eroded households’ purchasing power, penalizing sales of wine in the intermediate bracket (which decreased by 10.1% relative to 2022), confirming the increased polarization of the market. Low quality wines also reported a slight decrease in sales (down 1.7%), with a market share of 44.2%. The wine market is increasingly premium in nature (sales of very fine wines were up 12.7% on 2022, for a market share of 18.6%) and is also more sustainable (sales of organic wines were up 1.4%, for a market share of 5.4%; vegan wines up 9.6%, for a market share of 2.7%, and natural wines up 1.8%, for a market share of 1%).

GRUPPO CAVIRO
Italian companies the top performers
The Cantine Riunite-GIV group continues to lead the way in terms of total sales in 2023, with total revenues of €670.6m (down 3.4% on 2022). Second place was again taken by the Argea wine group (€449.5m, down 1.2%), followed by IWB with €429.1m (down 0.3% on 2022).
Romagna-based co-operative Caviro also posted 2023 revenues of over €400m (€423.1m), up 1.4% on 2022. A total of seven companies recorded total sales of between €200 and €300m: the Trentino-based co-operative Cavit (2023 total sales €267.1m, up 0.9% on 2022), Santa Margherita from the Veneto region (€255.4m, down 2%), Antinori from Tuscany (€250.3m, up 1.9%), La Marca, which specializes in the production of spumanti, and delivered 2023 total sales of €225.8m (down 4%), Piedmont-based Fratelli Martini (€219.6m, up 1.1%), Mezzacorona from Trentino (€217.7m, up 2%), and the Collis group which, having expanded its area of
consolidation, posted total sales of €209.4m (up 64.8% on 2022). In terms of profitability (i.e. net profit as a percentage of total sales), Tuscan wine-maker Frescobaldi led the rankings in 2023 with 29%, followed by Veneto-based Santa Margherita (18.5%). In third place came Antinori, with net profit equal to 17% of total sales, 2.6 percentage points higher than in 2022. Some companies reflect very high percentages of exports, which in some cases even account for almost all their groups’ total sales: such as the Fantini Group with 96.4%, Ruffino with 91.1%, and Argea with 89.9%.

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DOC and DOCG wines: regional excellences
In 2023 some 47.7% of Italian wine qualified as having DOP (protected designation of origin) status (DOC and DOCG), compared with just 38.5% in 2013. IGP wines (protected geographical indication) wines decreased from 35% in 2023 to 27% in 2023, approaching the percentage accounted for by table wine (25.3% in 2023). In regional terms Piedmont accounted for the lion's share, with 19 DOCG and 41 DOC wines, followed by Tuscany (11 DOCG, 41 DOC and 6 IGT) and Veneto (14 DOCG, 29 DOC and 10 IGT). Some 39.3% of the production of DOP wines is concentrated in Tuscany; while in Piedmont 94.6% of the regional production is DOP in nature.
Overall the value of the bottled DOP and IGT wines is equal to €4.3bn in Veneto, followed by Piedmont with €1.4bn and Tuscany with €1.2bn. These regional excellences are driving companies’ performances: the Tuscan wine-makers reported the highest Ebit margin (16.5%) and the highest ROI (6.3%), with Veneto and Piedmont equal in second position (both with 6.1%). Tuscany also reflects the highest financial solidity, with net debt accounting for just 18.4% of the capital invested. The largest exporters are the Piedmontese wine companies, where exports account for 64.5% of their turnover, followed by the Tuscan firms (60.6%). In 2023 exports drove the growth posted by the firms based in the Friuli region (whose total sales were up 6.1% and exports up 22.3%), and also of the firms based in Lombardy (total sales up 4.4%; exports up 7.4%) and in Emilia-Romagna (up 1.6% and up 8.6% respectively). Optimism for 2024, where growth is expected in Emilia-Romagna (up 4.6%), Puglia (up 4.3%), and Piedmont (up 4.2%).

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Family-owned companies in difficulty over sustainability issues
Family-controlled companies account for 64.8% of the aggregate net equity, a share which rises to 81.4% if the co-operatives are also considered. Financial investors own 10.9% of the shareholders’ equity: banks and insurance companies (5.2%) are not represented among the owners of the smaller companies, whereas private equity funds (which own 4.1% of the net equity) invest in the share capital of the leading wine-makers regardless of their size. NonItalian ownership also decreases with size, and accounts for 7.6% of net equity. Relations with financial markets are negligible: only two wine companies have been listed on the AIM since
2015 (Masi Agricola and IWB).
Work to be done in the area of sustainability Only 34.9% of the leading Italian wine makers prepare sustainability reporting (38.6% of the producers with turnover of more than €50m). The main reasons for this are: the complexity of the validation and finalization process (for 26.8% of the companies), the lack of benchmarks or reference best practice (14.3%), the difficulties of involving the relevant company units and the lack of specific competences (10.7%).

The full survey is available for download from Area Studi Mediobanca.